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JOCResearch
JOCR Residual Value Demand
Bands' Methodology
The
JOCR Residual Valuation Methodology enables assessment of commercial jet aircraft
present-day values, future values going out 15-20 years, and relationships of residual
values to lease rates.
Development of the JOCR Residual Value Methodology into a workable
computer program was
effected by David Irving of Morgan Stanley Aircraft Finance (London) in consultation with
Juan O'Callahan.
Present-Day Values: |
(a)
Base Value (BV) is the theoretical desk-top appraisal value for market conditions
that assume no cyclical impact due to a recessionary trough or an economic peak. BV assumes balanced market condition,
willing buyer/seller, and half-life condition on airframe and engine maintenance cycles.
(b)
Fair Market Value (FMV), also called Current Market Value (CMV) is the desktop
present value that does take into account real life economic cycle conditions (i.e.
cyclical troughs and peaks).. |
Future Values: |
Future values are normally projected in
current dollars. As such, future value
projections entail assumptions as to inflation and new aircraft price escalation factors.
Future values are normally projected as
Base Values (BV). |
Residual Values: |
Residual values are
assessed as a function of Nominal Replacement Price (NRP) at the date of valuation. Residual values cannot be assessed as a function of
Original Price, since there may be (or may have been) extreme distortion due to unusually
high or very low inflation factors in certain periods.
The use of Nominal
Replacement Price ensures comparability for all manufacturers aircraft products. JOCR does not use manufacturer list prices,
which were escalated at non-uniform levels between 1986 and 1996 i.e.:
Airbus Industries 6.3%
McDonnell
Douglas
5.9%
Boeing
5.0% |
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JOCR has developed a
table of Nominal Replacement Prices for commercial jet aircraft, using 1986 prices as a
base and escalating such prices at uniform levels i.e.:
1986 1993 4.00%
p.a.
1994
1995
3.33% p.a.
1996
2000
2.50% p.a. |
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